One of many handicapping conditions a horse participant typically faces is a horse that has been racing on dust that’s now switching to turf racing. That is a type of instances that factors out simply how advanced horse racing is and the way tough it’s to make choices. What normally occurs to a handicapper is that she or he finally involves conclusion that relatively than making an evaluation of each issue, it’s higher to search for spot performs as a result of it’s simply too tough to quantify all of the nuances of a horse race.
Let’s take a look at this one scenario for an instance. As an instance a 3 12 months previous horse is attempting the grass for the primary time. It has by no means run on turf and now it’s in an allowance race in opposition to others who’ve raced on the grass. How can a prognosticator forecast how this horse will race?
The primary place to start out is with the breeding. Checking the sire and dam’s sire will assist and it additionally could assist to see if the dam has another foals who gained on the turf. Pedigree is a large consideration when handicapping a horse racing first time on the grass. It’s not, nevertheless, the one consideration, as a result of horses solely do what the jockey and coach need them to do.
Subsequently, the following step is to examine the connections, the coach and jockey. Does the coach win with horses going first time on the grass? Many trainers will give a horse a race over the grass simply to get used to the floor. Like trainers who give a maiden a primary race simply to get acclimated to racing some won’t go for the win within the first grass race, even when the horse has good turf breeding. Seeing that the runner has a pedigree that means an affinity for the grass is due to this fact not sufficient, the connections should even be planning on going for the win.
That leads us to the jockey. There are occasions when the selection of rider by the coach can point out his or her intentions. As an example, was the jockey within the final race one of many coach’s go-to jockeys? In that case, has that rider stayed on the mount? If not, which may be an indication that the horse is not going to be despatched for the win. However, a change to a greater jockey or a go-to rider could point out that they’re severe about profitable first time on grass.
As you’ll be able to see, one easy change in a horse race can have many implications and that’s the reason horse racing handicapping is so tough and requires a scientific strategy.